I need to show you something.
Last week I pulled the latest DXB Interact transaction data for Dubai Marina. I've known the off-plan premium was bad. I didn't realize it was this bad.
Off-plan: 3,470 AED per square foot Secondary: 1,810 AED per square foot
That's a 91% premium.
Not 10%. Not 20%. Ninety-one percent more for the privilege of waiting 2-4 years, taking on construction risk, and hoping the finished product matches the renders.
Let me show you what this looks like in actual transactions from the last few weeks.
What people paid for off-plan:
Sobha Seahaven 1-bed: 3.56M AED at 4,200/sqft Marina Shores 1-bed: 2.02M AED at 2,695/sqft Six Senses 4-bed: 15.1M AED at 2,906/sqft
What people paid for secondary:
Marina Park 1-bed: 900K AED at 1,210/sqft Princess Tower 1-bed: 1.5M AED at 1,741/sqft Botanica Tower 1-bed: 1.51M AED at 1,869/sqft
Same neighborhood. Same views. Same lifestyle.
One investor starts generating income immediately. The other waits years and prays.
Here's what makes it worse.
Off-plan median prices dropped 23% year-over-year. Secondary median prices rose 7% year-over-year.
The market is telling you something. Developers are struggling to move inventory at insane premiums. Smart money is moving to secondary.
Most investors aren't listening.
Why agents push off-plan anyway
Off-plan commission: 5-7% Secondary commission: 2%
On a 3.5M Sobha Seahaven sale, the agent makes 175,000-245,000 AED. On a 1.5M Princess Tower sale, the agent makes 30,000 AED.
Finding good secondary deals requires putting in hundreds of offers to find motivated sellers. Weeks of work. For 2%.
Showing an off-plan brochure takes an afternoon. For 7%.
I'm not saying agents are bad people. They're responding to incentives. But their incentives are completely misaligned with your outcomes.
The Marina I actually invest in
I own properties in Marina. It's one of my favorite locations. But I've never bought off-plan here.
Here's what works:
Target established buildings. Marina Gate. Damac Heights. Princess Tower. Cayan Tower. These are 5-10 years old, fully stabilized, and trading at 40-60% below new launch prices.
Buy from motivated sellers. Divorce. Visa issues. Estate sales. These sellers will accept 10-15% below market for a fast transaction. I put in hundreds of offers to find these deals.
Renovate properly. 35-45K AED turns a dated apartment into the best unit in the building. Guests don't care when the tower was built. They care about what's inside.
Operate professionally. Marina has high guest expectations. Self-management typically achieves 70-75% occupancy at below-market rates. Professional operations hit 88-92% occupancy at premium rates. The difference is 3-4% net yield vs 7-8%.
The realistic Marina numbers
I'm going to be honest with you — Marina isn't a yield play. It's a demand play.
You're not going to hit 10-11% net like you might in JVC. That's not what Marina is for.
What Marina gives you:
Highest demand in Dubai (90-98% occupancy Oct-Apr)
Best exit liquidity (properly priced 1-beds sell in 2-4 weeks)
Premium guest quality (45% tourists, 20% honeymooners)
9/10 walkability (beach, metro, restaurants, nightlife)
Realistic expectation: 6-8% net cash yield + 5-7% annual appreciation = 11-13% total return.
That math only works if you buy at 1,600-2,000 AED/sqft. Not 3,400+.
The seasonal reality
Marina has patterns you need to understand:
Peak (Oct-Apr): 85-98% occupancy. 1-bed ADR: 450-750 AED. This is when Marina prints money.
Summer (May-Sep): 58-70% occupancy. 1-bed ADR: 280-380 AED. Smart operators pivot to monthly rentals and lock in guaranteed income.
Anyone telling you Marina does 10%+ net year-round is either lying or doesn't understand how seasonal STR works.
The bottom line
Marina is one of Dubai's best investment locations — if you buy correctly.
Pay 3,470 AED/sqft for off-plan promises? Bad investment. Pay 1,810 AED/sqft for a proven building, renovate it, operate it professionally? Good investment.
Same location. Same views. Completely different outcome.
The data is public. Anyone can verify it on DXB Interact.
The question is whether you'll use it.
If you're looking at Marina
I work with a small group of investors who want to do this correctly. Secondary market. Below-market purchases. Professional operations.
If you have 1.5M+ AED to deploy and you understand why paying 91% premiums makes no sense, book a call
We'll talk investor to investor.
Arman
P.S. — The buildings I'd focus on right now: Marina Gate (sea-facing, floors 20+), Damac Heights (floors 40+, marina view), Princess Tower (iconic, good entry point), Marina Wharf (waterfront, reasonable service charges). All trading at 40-60% below off-plan in the same area.